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WK 1MAINDK CLASSICCAP $50K
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Speaking our language  what the numbers mean
Leverage
Ceiling ÷ projected ownership. High means a big outcome almost nobody has. It is not a rating. A 6.0 on a player who never hits is still a loss.
Ownership
The percentage of the whole field we project to roster a player. This is the number nobody competes with Vegas to price, which is why it is the product.
Field overlap
How many of your 9 players sit in the average field lineup. This one is exact, not modelled: it is just the sum of your players' ownership. Low means you are somewhere the field is not.
Chalk
A heavily owned player. Usually chalk for a reason. Fading it just to be different is how people lose money feeling clever.
Ceiling
Roughly a 90th percentile outcome, not a best case. It scales with position: a WR's range is far wider than a QB's.
Constraint check
Every lineup has one QB, so QB ownership across the field must sum to 100%. We print it live. If our model breaks, you see it before we do.
Leverage tilt
How hard the optimizer leans toward plays the field is off. At 0 you build straight off projections and correct chalk stays in.
Stack
A QB plus his own pass catchers. When he throws a touchdown, they catch it, so their scores rise together. That shared upside is the point.
Max exposure
The most lineups any single player can appear in. Caps how badly one wrong call can hurt across a whole set.
Win %
From the simulation: how often this lineup beats the modelled field. It disagrees with raw projection more than you would think.
ROI
Use it to rank lineups against each other, never as a forecast. Our simulated field is more random than real opponents, so it runs optimistic.
Leverage = ceiling ÷ projected ownership. Points are a commodity. Vegas prices them and everyone sells projections. Nobody prices what the field will do. This tells you where the field is concentrated, not what to fade: plenty of chalk is chalk because it's the right play. The point is to choose knowingly instead of guessing.

Use your own slate

Drop DKSalaries.csv here, or bring your own projections and we'll do the ownership.

Filter the board, then click any player to lock or fade him.
Position
Show
PosPlayer Salary ProjCeil Own%Lev ValLock/Fade
Who moves together. A QB and his receivers score on the same plays, so their outcomes rise and fall as one. But not equally: the alpha who commands 60% of the targets is nearly the offense, while the WR4 barely registers. That gap is the difference between a stack that wins and one that just costs salary. Correlation here scales with target share and with the game total, so a shootout and a slog do not look alike. Two players in different games do not interact at all, which is why this is grouped by game. These are reasoned relationships, not ones fitted from historical game logs. Trust the ranking, not the third decimal.
Monte Carlo contest simulator. We simulate the slate thousands of times with correlated outcomes, because when a QB throws for 400 his receivers eat too. Then we simulate a field of opponents drawn from our ownership model and score everyone on the same outcomes.
Ownership stress test ask "what if the field catches on?"

Override what the field does — not the player's projection. If you think a player will be far more popular than our model says, tell the sim. If it still wants him at high ownership, his ceiling beats the field even when everyone has him: ride or die. If the sim backs off, his value was leverage, and there's none left up there: come under the field, or fade. His projected points never move — only the crowd around him does.

50%

Build lineups first

Hit Optimize Lineups, then come back. The sim ranks your lineups by win probability instead of mean projection, and the order changes.

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Set your rules and hit Optimize Lineups. Turn up Leverage to build around the plays the field is off.

Lineups you keep. The build pool is scratch space — it clears when you rebuild or reload. Anything you save here stays in this browser until you remove it, so you can build across several sessions and export the set at the end. Saved on this device only, not synced to your account.

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Build lineups, then hit the bookmark on any card to keep it. Saved lineups survive a reload.